We're just starting to navigate this new global scenario, but we understand that it's our role to stay attentive to consumer changes and new behaviors in the face of COVID-19.
All the coronavirus data we currently have access to is worldwide, but we believe we can extract from it some insights and trends about how society is behaving.
I see this scenario unfolding in 3 phases: PHASE 1
Understanding, awareness, and taking action
Here, the public will analyze (even if unconsciously) how companies and brands are positioning themselves in the face of the coronavirus crisis.
Our role is to make structural adjustments with all of the company's stakeholders in mind (both internal and external audiences).
Any move that prioritizes financial concerns will obviously tend to be poorly received by society and, consequently, by its consumers.
PHASE 2
Behavioral changes
Once the new “quarantine” habit is established because of the coronavirus, we'll see some changes within the community: fewer live interactions, more virtual interactions among family, friends, and also between customers and companies.
We'll also have more opportunities to focus on ourselves. Who knows, maybe it's time to revisit old habits like reading a book or playing and listening to good music, for example.
In this phase, we'll observe new behavioral trends and search interests online driven by the coronavirus.
As we can see in the chart below, during the quarantine period in China, there was a high level of interest in Games, Education, and Entertainment.
Online searches during China's quarantine
The Brazilian market has its own specific characteristics, but it's possible to see in this data some potential scenarios of opportunity.
Another important trait I believe in is that, with more time at home, people will tend to analyze their lives more closely and plan ahead for the future.
If we stay attentive to these signs, we'll be able to spot opportunities to act.
PHASE 3
End of the cycle
In this scenario, the peak of the coronavirus crisis will already have passed and people's daily lives will start returning to normal.
I believe this process will be abrupt, just as the start of phase 1 was.
Every market segment will be eager for commercial normalization, and we'll certainly see a huge amount of pent-up demand.
The global economic impacts will be a reality. There's no escaping that.
Unfortunately, as in every crisis, the most disadvantaged social classes will be hit the hardest, and the market will need to understand and adjust to this new supply dynamic.
In practice, I imagine we'll move a few squares back on the economic board and return to a scenario similar to 2016/2017 in terms of purchasing power.
I believe it will be up to companies to build commercial alternatives to understand this new moment and seek financial engineering solutions to ensure the recovery of cash flow and conversion of results in the post COVID-19 world.
Finally, I'd like to leave a message saying that this moment we're going through will serve to put to the test all the most important values we hold.
Although the economic and financial sphere is always very important, we need to let the human side speak louder. Understanding that not everything comes down to numbers, and that even if you can't get back to your ideal profit margin, sharing achievements is always better than winning alone.
Good luck to all of us.
